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The NHL’s highest & lowest ticket prices; conference realignment’s alleged slant in West’s favor

October 8, 2014 Leave a comment

Thinking about attending an NHL game or two this season? The leading resale ticket market aggregator/data source, TiqIQ ( www.tiqiq.com ) has got your budgeting covered as they’ve gathered ticket price info from the entire NHL to show you what’s affordable, what’s not, and everything in between. Here’s what they found out:

  • The average price for an NHL ticket is currently $162.96, which is 1.29% higher than the price this time last year ($160.89)
  • We have seen over the past several years, prices from now till end of season tend to drop anywhere between 18%-29%
  • Below are the Top 5 teams with the most expensive tickets this season:
    • Leafs: $373.50
    • Canucks: $282.58
    • Blackhawks: $275.65
    • Oilers: $259.83
    • Flames: $241.18
  • The team with the lowest average price currently are the Tampa Bay Lightning at $77.21
  • The team with the biggest % increase from last season to this season is the Ducks at 75.95% ($55.23 to $95.51) and the Jets had biggest decrease at -24.16% ($206.53 to $156.64)
  • Below are a few other notable teams and their change in price from last year:
    • Rangers: -6.62% ($233.42 to $217.97)
    • Kings: +5.74% ($125.73 to $132.95)
    • Blackhawks: -13.03% ($316.94 to $275.65)
    • Islanders: +41.17% ($89.17 to $125.88)
    • Avalanche: +17.92% ($87.11 to $102.72)
To view an online spreadsheet with all the ticket data for every team in the NHL for this season and last season as well, click here (tip: you’ll need Microsoft Excel to view it) .
 Be sure to visit www.tiqiq.com for more great data like this!
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With teams from the Western Conference winning 60% of the Stanley Cup championships since the league split into Eastern and Western Conferences in 1994, does the NHL’s most recent alignment structure disadvantage Eastern Conference teams? New statistical research says Yes!

haha, suckers!

Last year, the NHL realigned its conferences and divisions. The Eastern Conference now has 16 teams, while the Western Conference has only 14. Since there still are eight playoff spots in both conferences, teams in the West have a 57% probability of making the playoffs compared to just 50% for East teams.

This imbalance raises the question of how much more difficult it will be to make the playoffs in the East. In other words: How many more points—on average—will the East’s 8th seed team need to earn than the West’s 8th seed team to make the playoffs? If this difference—called the “conference gap”—is zero, we can conclude no team is facing an unfair advantage to getting into the playoffs. If the conference gap is not zero, we can question whether the realignment is fair.

To quantify this potential gap, Stephen Pettigrew, author of the Rink Stats blog (http://rinkstats.com/), estimated the impact of realignment using a Monte Carlo simulation of the new alignment’s scheduling matrix over 10,000 simulated NHL seasons (Monte Carlo methods are a common tool for statistical researchers to simulate games and seasons in hockey and other sports).

Pettigrew’s analysis reveals that when team talent is roughly distributed evenly between the two conferences, it will require 2.74 more points on average to make the playoffs in the East than in the West. So, on average, an Eastern Conference playoff-hopeful team will need to win one or two more games than a Western Conference playoff-hopeful team.

This finding has far-reaching competitive and financial implications for the NHL. For owners, it means imbalances in the revenue earned from home playoff games. Western Conference teams will make the playoffs at higher rates than Eastern Conference teams, resulting in at least two extra games of ticket and concession sales. For players, it means playing for a Western Conference team gives them a better chance of winning the Stanley Cup in any given year since simply making it to the playoffs gives them a chance to win it all. For fans of Eastern Conference teams, it means a higher probability their season will end too soon and less of a chance that in any given year his or her team will win the Stanley Cup.

Pettigrew’s analysis is reported in the September 2014 issue of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports (http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqas), a publication of the American Statistical Association (www.amstat.org).

[Archive] 2013 interview with Wade Redden

August 18, 2014 Leave a comment

on Twitter

This interview with Wade Redden posted to The Score’s Backhand Shelf blog on January 23, 2013. Redden was just about to return to the NHL after being bought out by the New York Rangers and signed by the St. Louis Blues. The move essentially rescued him from AHL purgatory, where he seemed to have been banished to. Redden went on to play 23 games (including tallying his 1,000th NHL game)  for the Blues and recorded 5 points, before being dealt to the Boston Bruins the same season for a conditional 7th round draft pick in 2014. The Beantown stop reunited Redden with his old Ottawa (and some say best) defense partner, Zdeno Chara. It was almost a storybook ending for Redden, as the Bruins advanced to the Stanley Cup final, but were bested by the Chicago Blackhawks, who spoiled his chance to have his name engraved on hockey’s richest prize. 

Redden did not sign an NHL contract with any club the following season, and announced his retirement in January of 2014. 

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Interview: Wade Redden talks with Backhand Shelf about his return to the NHL

Many NHL pundits and fans assumed they had seen the last of Wade Redden in the NHL, after the New York Rangers swept his $6.5 million cap hit under the rug by reassigning him to their AHL affiliate Connecticut Whale from 2010 to 2012.

But those critics were proved wrong after the Rangers cashed in one of their freshly CBA-approved accelerated compliance buyouts earlier this month, and used it to sever ties with Redden and the remaining two seasons of his six year deal with them. It posted him as an available, unrestricted free agent – something that the St. Louis Blues were quick to capitalize on the day after Redden hit the market.

The 35 year old veteran of 13 NHL seasons signed a one year deal with the Blues on January 20th for $800,000 plus another $200K in performance bonuses. That’s $4 million less than what he would have made with New York this year; though he will still earn a pro-rated $3.341 million for 2012-13, and just a little less than that for 2013-14 from the Rangers.

Redden passed a physical, dealt with immigration, and suddenly found himself to be an NHL player once again faster than you can say John Tortorella.

Redden has been skating with St. Louis in the interim, and accompanied them on their recent road trip through Nashville and Chicago. He is slated to resume NHL blue line patrol as early as Thursday, when the Blues take on the Predators at home.

In the meantime, Redden took a few minutes out to chat with me. Here’s what he had to say on his new contract, his time with the Rangers, and everything in between. 

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So you’ve passed your physical and signed your contract, how does it feel to officially be a member of the St. Louis Blues?

Redden: “It’s great. It’s a very exciting time. Last week was a whirlwind. It all happened pretty quick. But I’ve been here for a few days now, and have got to be around everyone and get on the ice with the whole team. I haven’t been on the ice with a group like this for a while. It’s great. I felt good out there. I’ve was on with the [Kelowna] Rockets before, and obviously they’re a great team and all that, but it’s great to get on the ice with this group of guys. We’ve got a great team here with a lot of great young guys. I’m excited to get rolling, and about the chance I have here.”

You hadn’t been playing for anyone else this year until now, but as you mentioned, you were skating with the WHL’s Kelowna Rockets just prior to coming to St. Louis; what else did you do to keep in shape during the lockout? Do you think what you did was enough to keep you playing at the NHL pace, especially since you’ve been removed from NHL action for two seasons?  

Redden: “Yeah, definitely it was. There was a group of NHL guys through the whole lockout inKelowna that I skated with. We pushed ourselves pretty good. We kept busy, kept on the ice, and kept training. Obviously it’s a bit of an adjustment anytime you are away for that long, but I’ll get worked back into it pretty quick here, and I should be good to go.”

You’ll be playing under Ken Hitchcock, a Jack Adams Trophy and Stanley Cup winning coach, on a team that many feel is poised to win their first ever Stanley Cup – what are your thoughts on being a part of such a strongly positioned team upon your NHL return?

Redden: “It’s very exciting. The organization here has built a great team. The young guys here have been around a while, and they’re just starting to come into their own and find out what kind of team they are – and they’re a good team. I’m going to try to mix in and add what I can bring, and help the team to do as good as it can.”

You’re one of the oldest guys on this roster – what kind of role do you feel you have as a veteran on this team?

Redden: “I’ve got experience, and I’ve played a lot of games, but I think they just want me to come and play the way I usually play – try to be steady and make good plays. We’ve got a lot of talent up front, and to just try to get the puck to them and let them create things like they can. Just try to be solid, play a good all-around game, and help the team win that way. That’s what they’re expecting from me.”

A lot of people may have thought or assumed that they wouldn’t see Wade Redden in the NHL again after you were reassigned to Connecticut from 2010-12; did you think you would get another chance in the NHL while you were down there?

Redden: “I always felt that I went down there with a purpose. I obviously wasn’t happy about the demotion or getting sent there. And I played in this league for a long time, so I knew I could play. Obviously there were different circumstances that affected my reason for being there. I went down there, worked hard, played hard, tried to be a good teammate, and did all the things I usually do. I always felt like if I did those things, it’d be my best chance to get back. I’m happy and fortunate to have found another chance.”

Did you ever consider retiring while you were playing in the AHL? You’ve played in 994 games in 13 NHL seasons, tallied 450 points thus far, played for Canada 7 times – a very respectable career, and very respectable statistics to leave on. If you didn’t, why did you decide to keep at it?

Redden: “Yeah, I’ve played in a lot of games, but I didn’t feel good about finishing that way, that’s for sure. My time inNew York wasn’t great. I knew I could do better, and I wanted to prove that, not only to myself, but to other people too. I don’t want to rest on what I’ve done thus far. I think there are still good things to happen. I want to keep having fun, keep playing, and you never know – a lot of good things are available if you keep going. You never know what’s going to happen.”

In your opinion, what went wrong in New York? You were so successful in your early years with Ottawa, but you just didn’t seem to gel with the Rangers.

Redden: “I went in there on a big contract. I think maybe making that money there and being the player I am… I felt like the first little while, things were going pretty good, and then they kind of fell off. I felt like I wasn’t doing enough, and like I should have been doing more. Once I started feeling that way, I think I just got away from the things that made me successful. Things just kind of snowballed from there. It wasn’t a good fit from early on, and they made a decision to make changes. I lived with that. It wasn’t a good fit, things didn’t work out, and I’ve moved on. I’m done there now, and am happy to have moved on.”

Sean Avery was in a comparable situation playing in Connecticut after being sent down from the Rangers while you were there; did you ever have any discussions with him about the similar scenarios you found yourselves in?

Redden: “Not really, no. We were both there – kind of buried down there – but our situations were a little different. We never really got into it too much. We were both just trying to make the most of it.”

Do you feel like you have something to prove this year in the NHL? Perhaps to prove the New York Rangers wrong for what they did with you, or something else – or do you just look at this season like business as usual?

Redden: “Yeah, I’m excited. Life goes on. Everyone’s focused on what they’ve got to do. I’ve just got to do what I do best. Yeah, I’ve got pride and I want to do well. But at the same time I’ve got to stay within myself and play the way I can play, do what I can do, and everything will work out just fine.”

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on Twitter

Kings/Rangers Stanley Cup Final stats analysis & predictions.

June 4, 2014 Leave a comment


LAKvsNYRThere is a lot of statistical data out there to help compare the Los Angeles Kings and New York Rangers ahead of their 2014 Stanley Cup Final meeting, and an incredible number of rabbit holes one could venture down when attempting to analyze all the data made available. With stats gleaned from NHL.com, here’s a brief look at the the teams’ 2 regular season meetings from the categories I find most important, to show how they stack up versus and solo so far in the first 3 rounds of playoffs.

HEAD TO HEAD October 17 (Staples Center), November 17 (MSG)

  KingsLOS ANGELES KINGS NYRNEW YORK RANGERS 
Wins 1 1
Goals 2 — Muzzin (1), Toffoli (1) 3 — Richards (2), McDonagh (1)
Assists Richards (2), Voynov (1) Nash (2), Stepan (1), Boyle (1)
Power Play 0-3 0-8
Penalty Kill 8-8 3-3
Penalized Players/PIM Doughty (6), Clifford (5), Mitchell (4), Williams (2), Lewis (2), Brown (2), Bench (2). Asham* (5), Stralman (2), Brassard (2), Pouliot (2), Boyle (2).
Goaltenders Quick** Lundqvist
SA 28 59
Saves 25 57
SV% .893 .966
TOI 59:21 118:59
Pulls 1 1

Despite an even head-to-head record, NYR seemed to have a slight statistical advantage when playing each other.

*No longer on NYR’s roster.

**Quick only played 1 of the 2 games. Ben Scrivens played game 2, and is no longer on LA’s roster.

2014 PLAYOFFS

Games Played 21 20
Home Wins 5 6
Road Wins 7 6
Goals, PG AVG 73 — 3.48 (1st) 54 — 2.70 (8th)
GA — AVG 60 — 2.86 (9th) 45 — 2.25 (2nd)
PPG — % 17 (1st) — 25.4 (5th) 11 (5th) — 13.6 (10th)
SHGA 1 2
PK% 81.2 (9th) 85.9 (2nd)
Total PIM 272 (16th) 200 (14th)
PIM PG 13.0 10.0
Shots AVG 30.7 29.4
Shots Against 30.3 28.0
Blocked Shots 314 (4th) 331 (2nd)
OT Record 2-2 2-1
Hits 898 (1st) 587 (2nd)
FOW — % 735 (1st) – 52.9 (2nd) 601 (3rd) – 47.5 (12th)
Leaders Goals (Gaborik -12), Assists (Kopitar -19), Points (Kopitar -24), +/- (Williams – +11) Goalie Wins, Save % (Lundqvist)

With a slight edge in playoff statistics, LA seems to have the advantage through 3 rounds. They should dominate in face-offs, hits, goals, assists, points, +/-, shots, on the power play. Despite LA’s touted defensive domination, it’s actually NYR that leads the two on the penalty kill, PIM, goals against, shots against, blocked shots, and goaltending.

Of interest: Rangers are 100% when shots are even, and when leading after 2 periods.

By the numbers, this series may be closer than many assume. With more category leads in the above categories, I am giving the nod to the LA Kings to win the 2014 Stanley Cup. But those are just numbers — let’s see what the games actually bring!

Why Canadians should be cheering for the LA Kings to win the Stanley Cup, again

June 2, 2014 1 comment

2014_Stanley_Cup_FinalsIf your team has been eliminated from the playoffs, it can be tough to choose another squad to root for while the remainder of the post season plays out. One way some people prefer in choosing an adoptive team is to go on player nationalities. With the Montreal Canadiens being the only team based in a Canadian city to qualify for the 2014 Stanley Cup playoffs, and having been eliminated in the Eastern Conference Final, many Canadian fans may wonder whether it’d be better to align with LA or New York. I posted this same breakdown in 2012 when the LA Kings met the New Jersey Devils in the Final, and below you’ll find the 2014 edition. Hopefully it will help corral some of you lost, wandering hockey souls towards the appropriate roster while you try to pick up the shattered pieces and ease the pain of your true team’s season gone sideways.

LOS ANGELES KINGS

The active roster of the Los Angeles Kings features 24 players – 16 of them are Canadian, 5 are American, 1 is Russian, 1 is Slovakian, and 1 is Slovenian. Add 1 Canadian if you count head coach Darryl Sutter. The Kings have 1 more Canadian in their lineup than the Montreal Canadiens did – the only team based in a Canadian city that made this year’s playoffs.

Representing Canada (67%: +7% since 2012): Jeff Carter, Kyle Clifford, Dwight King, Jordan Nolan, Mike Richards, Jarret Stoll, Justin Williams, Drew Doughty, Willie Mitchell, Tanner Pearson, Tyler Toffoli, Brayden McNabb, Jake Muzzin, Robyn Regehr, Jeff Schultz, Martin Jones (Darryl Sutter).

Representing the USA (28%: -7% from 2012): Dustin Brown, Trevor Lewis, Matt Greene, Alec Martinez, Jonathan Quick.

Representing Europe (12.5%: +.05% from 2012): Slava Voynov, Anze Kopitar, Marian Gaborik

Assessment: Predominantly CANADIAN.

**NOTE: If LA wins the Stanley Cup, Jeff Carter and Drew Doughty will have won both Olympic gold and the NHL crown in the same season — aka the DCC.

 

NEW YORK RANGERS

NYRThe active roster of the New York Rangers features 27 players – 13 of them are Canadian, 7 are American, 5 are Swedish, 1 is Norwegian, and 1 is Swiss. Add 1 Canadian if you count head coach Alain Vigneault.

Representing Canada (48%): Derick Brassard, Dan Carcillo, Derek Dorsett, Dominic Moore, Rick Nash, Benoit Pouliot, Martin St. Louis, Justin Falk, Dan Girardi, Kevin Klein, Marc Staal, Cam Talbot, Brad Richards (Alain Vigneault).

Representing the USA (26%): Brian Boyle, Ryan Haggerty, Chris Kreider, JT Miller, Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh, John Moore.

Representing Europe (26%): Jesper Fast, Carl Hagelin, Oscar Lindberg, Mats Zuccarello, Anton Stralman, Henrik Lundqvist, Raphael Diaz.

Assessment: Predominantly CANADIAN.

**NOTE: If NYR wins the Stanley Cup, Martin St. Louis and Rick Nash will have won both Olympic gold and the NHL crown in the same season — aka the DCC.

 

CONCLUSION

If you’re basing your newly acquired team allegiances upon the nationality content of each team, here’s how you should focus your cheering:

-If you are Canadian, and want to cheer for the highest volume of Canadian players, you should be cheering for the LA Kings in the 2014 Stanley Cup Finals, because they have the majority of them.

-If you are American cheering for Americans, the LA Kings again are your huckleberry.

-If you’re European cheering for Europeans, you should side with New York.

So with all that being said, who do ya got? Leave a comment to state your allegiance.

KINGS RANGERS faceoff

2nd Quadrennial Double Championship Challenge!

May 20, 2014 5 comments

cup goldWell it’s getting on in the 2014 NHL playoffs, and it’s about time to dust of the old Double Championship Challenge for it’s second quadrennial go-round. If this seems Greek to you, click here to catch up on what the 1st Quadrennial Double Championship Challenge was all about. You may recall Rich Abney walked away with a championship t-shirt and four years of bragging rights in 2010 after picking the Chicago Blackhawks’ Canadian Olympic team members to win gold and the Stanley Cup in the same season.

So let’s have at it — cast your votes on who will win this quadrennial’s crown as outright best in the world.

Here’s who’s left:

Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith, Patrick Sharp — Chicago Blackhawks [note: Keith & Toews can repeat as back-to-back DCC champs]

Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter — Los Angeles Kings 

Martin St-Louis, Rick Nash — New York Rangers

 Carey Price, P.K. Subban — Montreal Canadiens

Here’s who’s eliminated:

Marc-Édouard Vlasic, Patrick Marleau — San Jose Sharks

Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz — Pittsburgh Penguins

Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Pietrangelo — St. Louis Blues

Ryan Getzlaf , Corey Perry — Anaheim Ducks

Matt Duchene — Colorado Avalanche

  Jamie Benn — Dallas Stars

Patrice Bergeron — Boston Bruins

Here’s who did not qualify: 

Roberto Luongo — Vancouver Canucks

Mike Smith — Phoenix Coyotes

Shea Weber — Nashville Predators

John Tavares — New York Islanders

And unlike 2010 when Corey Perry joined Canada’s World Championship roster after winning Olympic gold in Vancouver, there are no players or staff that are representing Canada twice in the same season this time around.

Who’s your pick? Leave a comment to let us know! Choose correctly and you’ll be eligible to win an exclusive prize from Serenity Now…The SDC Blogs.

Rules: To enter, leave a comment on this post with your name, your pick, and where you’re from. One vote only — no do-overs. Those who select correctly will be entered into a draw for the grand prize. Good luck!

 

XP PSP s01e13: NHL Trade Deadline Roundup

March 8, 2014 Leave a comment

Larry Fisher

Larry Fisher from the Kelowna Daily Courier called in for episode 13 to debrief all the action from the 2014 NHL trade deadline. We talked Martin St. Louis for Ryan Callahan, Roberto Luongo to Florida, Gaborik to LA, Ryan Miller to Buffalo, Jaroslav Halak all over the place, Vanek’s path to Montreal, Edmonton’s moves of Hemsky and Bryzgalov, the non-moves of Brodeur and Kesler, and we both pick our winners of the day.

Follow Larry FisherXP PSP, and host Dave Cunning on Twitter.

Visit www.larry-fisher.com 

Click here to listen to the XP PSP audio podcast at Podbean

Download_on_iTunes_Badge_US-UK_110x40_1004https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/xppsp/id643817929

The cheapest Stadium Series tickets left; TJ Sochi T-Shirt

February 27, 2014 Leave a comment

With the puck about to drop on the final 2 games of the 2014 NHL Stadium Series, TiqIQ.com has passed along some interesting data on average secondary market ticket prices for the March 1st Blackhawks/Penguins game in Chicago at Soldier Field. If you were planning on attending, but haven’t bought a ticket yet, here’s what you should expect to have to shell out:

-Current average ticket price for Saturday’s game: $230.77 (down 18% this week and 67% since its peak on 9/23/13)

-Cheapest ticket currently listed: $91 (originally $139), Section 432

-Most expensive ticket currently listed: $845 (originally $325), Section 308

Soldier Field Stadium Series seating

All I know is, if I’m gonna cough up $825 to sit in a seat in the farthest section away from the ice in the stadium, my seat better come with an open mini bar, and the NHL Network installed into the back of the seat in front of me.

Comparatively, here are the average prices for the previous four Stadium Series games of 2014, as well as the upcoming Heritage Classic, ranked from most expensive to least:

-Yankee Stadium – Rangers/Devils – $244 ($89)

-Yankee Stadium – Rangers/Islanders – $206 ($43)

-Winter Classic – Red Wings/Maple Leafs – $156 ($57)

-Dodger Stadium – Kings/Ducks – $199 ($117)

-Heritage Classic – Canucks/Senators – $182 ($74)

For more on this data, visit TiqIQ.com, follow TiqIQ on Twitter, or contact TiqIQ’s Director of Marketing, Stefan Mersch, at stefan@tiqiq.com.

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Speaking of buying things hockey related, I know a t-shirt worthy catchphrase when I hear one, and thusly I put one on one. After TJ Oshie’s unfathomable shootout performance against Russia, “TJ Sochi” was one of the best nicknames to emerge from the Sochi 2014 Olympics, so here’s what I did with it:

TJ Sochi shirt

 Visit my Etsy store and make this shirt yours before everyone forgets about that fateful night in Sochi! It may even help to cover the American shame of losing the bronze medal game 5-0 and finishing fourth, after posting a video like this:

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