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Kings/Rangers Stanley Cup Final stats analysis & predictions.


LAKvsNYRThere is a lot of statistical data out there to help compare the Los Angeles Kings and New York Rangers ahead of their 2014 Stanley Cup Final meeting, and an incredible number of rabbit holes one could venture down when attempting to analyze all the data made available. With stats gleaned from NHL.com, here’s a brief look at the the teams’ 2 regular season meetings from the categories I find most important, to show how they stack up versus and solo so far in the first 3 rounds of playoffs.

HEAD TO HEAD October 17 (Staples Center), November 17 (MSG)

  KingsLOS ANGELES KINGS NYRNEW YORK RANGERS 
Wins 1 1
Goals 2 — Muzzin (1), Toffoli (1) 3 — Richards (2), McDonagh (1)
Assists Richards (2), Voynov (1) Nash (2), Stepan (1), Boyle (1)
Power Play 0-3 0-8
Penalty Kill 8-8 3-3
Penalized Players/PIM Doughty (6), Clifford (5), Mitchell (4), Williams (2), Lewis (2), Brown (2), Bench (2). Asham* (5), Stralman (2), Brassard (2), Pouliot (2), Boyle (2).
Goaltenders Quick** Lundqvist
SA 28 59
Saves 25 57
SV% .893 .966
TOI 59:21 118:59
Pulls 1 1

Despite an even head-to-head record, NYR seemed to have a slight statistical advantage when playing each other.

*No longer on NYR’s roster.

**Quick only played 1 of the 2 games. Ben Scrivens played game 2, and is no longer on LA’s roster.

2014 PLAYOFFS

Games Played 21 20
Home Wins 5 6
Road Wins 7 6
Goals, PG AVG 73 — 3.48 (1st) 54 — 2.70 (8th)
GA — AVG 60 — 2.86 (9th) 45 — 2.25 (2nd)
PPG — % 17 (1st) — 25.4 (5th) 11 (5th) — 13.6 (10th)
SHGA 1 2
PK% 81.2 (9th) 85.9 (2nd)
Total PIM 272 (16th) 200 (14th)
PIM PG 13.0 10.0
Shots AVG 30.7 29.4
Shots Against 30.3 28.0
Blocked Shots 314 (4th) 331 (2nd)
OT Record 2-2 2-1
Hits 898 (1st) 587 (2nd)
FOW — % 735 (1st) – 52.9 (2nd) 601 (3rd) – 47.5 (12th)
Leaders Goals (Gaborik -12), Assists (Kopitar -19), Points (Kopitar -24), +/- (Williams – +11) Goalie Wins, Save % (Lundqvist)

With a slight edge in playoff statistics, LA seems to have the advantage through 3 rounds. They should dominate in face-offs, hits, goals, assists, points, +/-, shots, on the power play. Despite LA’s touted defensive domination, it’s actually NYR that leads the two on the penalty kill, PIM, goals against, shots against, blocked shots, and goaltending.

Of interest: Rangers are 100% when shots are even, and when leading after 2 periods.

By the numbers, this series may be closer than many assume. With more category leads in the above categories, I am giving the nod to the LA Kings to win the 2014 Stanley Cup. But those are just numbers — let’s see what the games actually bring!

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