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Kings/Rangers Stanley Cup Final stats analysis & predictions.

June 4, 2014 Leave a comment


LAKvsNYRThere is a lot of statistical data out there to help compare the Los Angeles Kings and New York Rangers ahead of their 2014 Stanley Cup Final meeting, and an incredible number of rabbit holes one could venture down when attempting to analyze all the data made available. With stats gleaned from NHL.com, here’s a brief look at the the teams’ 2 regular season meetings from the categories I find most important, to show how they stack up versus and solo so far in the first 3 rounds of playoffs.

HEAD TO HEAD October 17 (Staples Center), November 17 (MSG)

  KingsLOS ANGELES KINGS NYRNEW YORK RANGERS 
Wins 1 1
Goals 2 — Muzzin (1), Toffoli (1) 3 — Richards (2), McDonagh (1)
Assists Richards (2), Voynov (1) Nash (2), Stepan (1), Boyle (1)
Power Play 0-3 0-8
Penalty Kill 8-8 3-3
Penalized Players/PIM Doughty (6), Clifford (5), Mitchell (4), Williams (2), Lewis (2), Brown (2), Bench (2). Asham* (5), Stralman (2), Brassard (2), Pouliot (2), Boyle (2).
Goaltenders Quick** Lundqvist
SA 28 59
Saves 25 57
SV% .893 .966
TOI 59:21 118:59
Pulls 1 1

Despite an even head-to-head record, NYR seemed to have a slight statistical advantage when playing each other.

*No longer on NYR’s roster.

**Quick only played 1 of the 2 games. Ben Scrivens played game 2, and is no longer on LA’s roster.

2014 PLAYOFFS

Games Played 21 20
Home Wins 5 6
Road Wins 7 6
Goals, PG AVG 73 — 3.48 (1st) 54 — 2.70 (8th)
GA — AVG 60 — 2.86 (9th) 45 — 2.25 (2nd)
PPG — % 17 (1st) — 25.4 (5th) 11 (5th) — 13.6 (10th)
SHGA 1 2
PK% 81.2 (9th) 85.9 (2nd)
Total PIM 272 (16th) 200 (14th)
PIM PG 13.0 10.0
Shots AVG 30.7 29.4
Shots Against 30.3 28.0
Blocked Shots 314 (4th) 331 (2nd)
OT Record 2-2 2-1
Hits 898 (1st) 587 (2nd)
FOW — % 735 (1st) – 52.9 (2nd) 601 (3rd) – 47.5 (12th)
Leaders Goals (Gaborik -12), Assists (Kopitar -19), Points (Kopitar -24), +/- (Williams – +11) Goalie Wins, Save % (Lundqvist)

With a slight edge in playoff statistics, LA seems to have the advantage through 3 rounds. They should dominate in face-offs, hits, goals, assists, points, +/-, shots, on the power play. Despite LA’s touted defensive domination, it’s actually NYR that leads the two on the penalty kill, PIM, goals against, shots against, blocked shots, and goaltending.

Of interest: Rangers are 100% when shots are even, and when leading after 2 periods.

By the numbers, this series may be closer than many assume. With more category leads in the above categories, I am giving the nod to the LA Kings to win the 2014 Stanley Cup. But those are just numbers — let’s see what the games actually bring!

Why Canadians should be cheering for the LA Kings to win the Stanley Cup, again

June 2, 2014 1 comment

2014_Stanley_Cup_FinalsIf your team has been eliminated from the playoffs, it can be tough to choose another squad to root for while the remainder of the post season plays out. One way some people prefer in choosing an adoptive team is to go on player nationalities. With the Montreal Canadiens being the only team based in a Canadian city to qualify for the 2014 Stanley Cup playoffs, and having been eliminated in the Eastern Conference Final, many Canadian fans may wonder whether it’d be better to align with LA or New York. I posted this same breakdown in 2012 when the LA Kings met the New Jersey Devils in the Final, and below you’ll find the 2014 edition. Hopefully it will help corral some of you lost, wandering hockey souls towards the appropriate roster while you try to pick up the shattered pieces and ease the pain of your true team’s season gone sideways.

LOS ANGELES KINGS

The active roster of the Los Angeles Kings features 24 players – 16 of them are Canadian, 5 are American, 1 is Russian, 1 is Slovakian, and 1 is Slovenian. Add 1 Canadian if you count head coach Darryl Sutter. The Kings have 1 more Canadian in their lineup than the Montreal Canadiens did – the only team based in a Canadian city that made this year’s playoffs.

Representing Canada (67%: +7% since 2012): Jeff Carter, Kyle Clifford, Dwight King, Jordan Nolan, Mike Richards, Jarret Stoll, Justin Williams, Drew Doughty, Willie Mitchell, Tanner Pearson, Tyler Toffoli, Brayden McNabb, Jake Muzzin, Robyn Regehr, Jeff Schultz, Martin Jones (Darryl Sutter).

Representing the USA (28%: -7% from 2012): Dustin Brown, Trevor Lewis, Matt Greene, Alec Martinez, Jonathan Quick.

Representing Europe (12.5%: +.05% from 2012): Slava Voynov, Anze Kopitar, Marian Gaborik

Assessment: Predominantly CANADIAN.

**NOTE: If LA wins the Stanley Cup, Jeff Carter and Drew Doughty will have won both Olympic gold and the NHL crown in the same season — aka the DCC.

 

NEW YORK RANGERS

NYRThe active roster of the New York Rangers features 27 players – 13 of them are Canadian, 7 are American, 5 are Swedish, 1 is Norwegian, and 1 is Swiss. Add 1 Canadian if you count head coach Alain Vigneault.

Representing Canada (48%): Derick Brassard, Dan Carcillo, Derek Dorsett, Dominic Moore, Rick Nash, Benoit Pouliot, Martin St. Louis, Justin Falk, Dan Girardi, Kevin Klein, Marc Staal, Cam Talbot, Brad Richards (Alain Vigneault).

Representing the USA (26%): Brian Boyle, Ryan Haggerty, Chris Kreider, JT Miller, Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh, John Moore.

Representing Europe (26%): Jesper Fast, Carl Hagelin, Oscar Lindberg, Mats Zuccarello, Anton Stralman, Henrik Lundqvist, Raphael Diaz.

Assessment: Predominantly CANADIAN.

**NOTE: If NYR wins the Stanley Cup, Martin St. Louis and Rick Nash will have won both Olympic gold and the NHL crown in the same season — aka the DCC.

 

CONCLUSION

If you’re basing your newly acquired team allegiances upon the nationality content of each team, here’s how you should focus your cheering:

-If you are Canadian, and want to cheer for the highest volume of Canadian players, you should be cheering for the LA Kings in the 2014 Stanley Cup Finals, because they have the majority of them.

-If you are American cheering for Americans, the LA Kings again are your huckleberry.

-If you’re European cheering for Europeans, you should side with New York.

So with all that being said, who do ya got? Leave a comment to state your allegiance.

KINGS RANGERS faceoff

Canadians Should Cheer For The LA Kings, and Who American and European Fans Should Pull For in the 2013 Stanley Cup Final Four.

June 7, 2013 Leave a comment

With the elimination of the Vancouver Canucks, Ottawa Senators, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Montreal Canadiens from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs — and every year Canadian city based NHL teams are either eliminated from the playoffs or do not qualify — there is a certain level of Canadian fan disengagement from the NHL as Canada’s best hopes of bringing the Stanley Cup back north are snuffed out. But with nationalistic pride in mind, there are still plenty of – predominantly, in fact – Canadian born players to cheer for on the remaining four American based teams. Here are the numbers to show you which teams are in fact the most Canadian, American, and European, and to whom your drifting allegiances would be best to land upon:

*********

Bruins

Boston Bruins:


Canadians:
Nathan Horton, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, Gregory Campbell, Johnny Boychuk, Daniel Paille, Tyler Seguin, Shawn Thornton, Dougie Hamilton, Adam McQuaid, Wade Redden, Rich Peverley, Andrew Ference, Chris Kelly.

Americans:
Matt Bartkowski.


Europeans:
Dennis Seidenberg (Germany), Jaromir Jagr (Czech Republic), Zdeno Chara (Slovakia), David Krejci (Czech Republic), Kaspars Daugavins (Latvia), Tuukka Rask (Finland).

22 total active players

small CanadaCAN 15 = 68%

small USAUSA 1 = 0.05%

small EUEUR 6 = 27%

*********

Blackhawks

Chicago Blackhawks:

Canadians: Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith, Bryan Bickell, Andrew Shaw, Jonathan Toews, Brent Seabrook, Dave Bolland, Daniel Carcillo, Corey Crawford.

Americans: Nick Leddy, Brandon Saad, Patrick Kane, Brandon Bollig.

Europeans: Michal Rozsival (Czech Republic), Marian Hossa  (Slovakia), Michal Handzus (Slovakia), Michael Frolik (Czech Republic), Johnny Oduya (Sweden), Marcus Kruger (Sweden), Niklas Hjalmarsson (Sweden), Viktor Stalberg (Sweden).

21 total active players

small CanadaCAN 9 = 43%

small USAUSA 4 = 19%

small EUEUR 8 = 38%

*********

Kings

Los Angeles Kings:

Canadians: Jeff Carter, Mike Richards, Justin Williams, Drew Doughty, Tyler Toffoli, Dustin Penner, Dwight King, Jake Muzzin, Robyn Regehr, Jarret Stoll, Colin Fraser, Kyle Clifford, Brad Richardson, Keaton Ellerby, Jordan Nolan, Tanner Pearson, Jonathan Bernier.

Americans: Jonathan Quick, Dustin Brown, Trevor Lewis, Rob Scuderi, Matt Greene, Alec Martinez.

Europeans: Slava Voynov (Russia), Anze Kopitar (Slovenia).

25 total active players

small CanadaCAN 17 = 68%

small USAUSA 6 = 24%

small EUEUR 2 = 0.08%

*********

Penguins

Pittsburgh Penguins:

Canadians: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby, Jarome Iginla, Pascal Dupuis, James Neal, Chris Kunitz, Tyler Kennedy, Brenden Morrow, Matt Cooke, Tanner Glass, Craig Adams, Deryk Engelland, Simon Despres, Marc-Andre Fleury.

Americans: Joe Vitale, Brooks Orpik, Matt Niskanen, Beau Bennett, Brandon Sutter, Mark Eaton, Paul Martin.

Europeans: Evgeni Malkin (Russia), Tomas Vokoun (Czech Republic), Douglas Murray (Sweden), Jussi Jokinen (Finland).

25 active players

small CanadaCAN 14 = 56%

small USAUSA 7 = 28%

small EUEUR 4 = 0.16%

*********

Summary:

small CanadaHighest Number of Canadians: LA Kings (17)

small CanadaHighest Percentage of Canadians: LA Kings/Boston Bruins (68%)

small USAHighest Number of Americans: Pittsburgh Penguins (7)

small USAHighest Percentage of Americans: Pittsburgh Penguins (28%)

small EUHighest Number of Europeans: Chicago Blackhawks (8)

small EUHighest Percentage of Europeans: Chicago Blackhawks (38%)

 

Conclusion:

small CanadaMost Canadian Team: LA Kings

small USAMost American Team: Pittsburgh Penguins

small EUMost European Team: Chicago Blackhawks

So, with all that being said, if your favorite/regional team has been eliminated, and you are in the market for a new team to temporarily align with and would prefer to cheer for a new team and/or players based on nationality, you now should have all the information necessary to appropriately select your new allegiance.

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More To Kopitar’s OT GWG Than Meets The Eye

June 11, 2012 Leave a comment

 

[originally post for www.betonhockey.com on June 3, 2012]

Anze Kopitar’s game 1 overtime winner was unquestionably pretty, and there’s a lot more within the 10 second series of events that occurred prior to the puck crossing the goal line than one is able to see at first glance that made it even more spectacular.

First, the fact that this scoring opportunity even materialized is ridiculous, and a complete breakdown on New Jersey’s part.

BetOnHockey_Kopitar_Goal_Creation.jpg

1. Things start out as New Jersey defenceman, Marek Zidlicky, forced Dustin Brown to turn the puck over just before the Kings blue line (C). Up until this point, Kopitar (A) was covered by Zach Parise (B), and both were anticipating the puck heading towards the Devils’ zone.

2. When the original Brown/Zidlicky turnover occurred, Parise peeled off from Kopitar to aid the attack. Kopitar perhaps was anticipating a positive outcome of the breakdown and just kept heading to the other end in a straight line, rather than doubling back to help defensively.

3. Travis Zajac (A) responded and swatted at it, but wasn’t able to gain true possession, while Drew Doughty (B) was. Doughty then sent the puck up along the boards to Justin Williams (C), who was waiting near center ice. By the time Williams received the puck, Kopitar was waiting at center completely uncovered (D), as Parise was still deep in the Kings zone (E).

4. New Jersey’s last man back, defenceman Bryce Salvador, pinched on Williams (A) – why he would take a risk like that in overtime is beyond me, especially with an unhindered attacker heading towards his net. Before Salvador could engage, Williams (B) had the presence of mind to chip the puck to the middle (whereas most coaches would instruct you to chip it off the boards and into the zone to be chased down) to a wide open Kopitar at the Devils’ blue line (C), who had at that point been gaining speed since his own blue line. Parise is so far behind on his backchecking, he’s not even on the screen anymore.

5. By the time Kopitar made his shot, Dainius Zubrus (A) was incredibly able to catch up and touch him with his stick, but not with enough force to disrupt the scoring opportunity.

Regarding the goal itself, there are a number of amazing things that occur within the split seconds of it being scored (3 seconds from the time he takes possession of the puck at the Devils’ blue line to the puck going in). The whole scenario almost boils down to a battle of the wits when you slow it down and dissect it.

BetOnHockey_Kopi_Goal_Set.jpg

1. Kopitar throws a deke to the right that Brodeur bites on, but is able to stay with. As Kopitar moves to the left side of the goal, Brodeur continues to track the puck; sprawling across the crease with his right pad along the ice to thwart a goal being scored along the ice.

2. What happened next is where I believe Kopitar won the battle. While on his stomach, Brodeur flexed his right knee from about 2 feet out from the goal line, and elevated his right pad up to around a 45° angle, with his skate blade finishing approximately half way up the 4’ high post — one may assume to counter an anticipated elevated shot that Brodeur had baited by closing off the on-ice options. Brodeur is 6’2”, which means the length from his knee to his foot is approximately 1.5 feet, while the pad being elevated is 11 inches wide. Kopitar had the puck at the 4’ mark at the top of the crease – a 4’ distance and a 4’ high post create a 45° shooting angle for Kopitar. BUT Brodeur has his pad up, and by the estimated distance variables, Brodeur’s sprawl actually cuts the middle 13° out of Kopitar’s scoring angle, and reduces his total feasible scoring area by 40% down to an 18° angle in which he needs to raise the puck within to score – that’s a tough shot from that distance, even by NHL standards.

BetOnHockey_Kopi_Shooting_Angle.jpg

3. This is where I venture that Kopitar’s skill/instinct kicked in – as Brodeur’s pad came up, it obviously reopened the along-the-ice scoring option, which Kopitar held on to the puck long enough to draw out – in overtime of the Stanley Cup Final, 25 year old Anze Kopitar had the patience to outwait a 3-time Stanley Cup champion, 4-time goalie of the year, and 20 year NHL veteran within a 4’ space at top speed in a fraction of a second – and tuck it neatly right underneath within an even smaller 14° clearance, while Brodeur unsuccessfully scrambled to get his pad back down in time.

4. Kopitar buries the puck and game 1 in the back of the net behind Brodeur.

They say that in those split seconds, time seems to slow down. I’ve been in game situations like that – not an OT breakaway in the Stanley Cup Finals against a future Hall of Fame goaltender scenario, mind you – but I can attest that you do can have an odd amount of control in a finite window of time like that. Kopitar being the amazing player that he is, demonstrated that point to a tea, and made it count.

Amazing.

Why Canadians Should Be Cheering For The LA Kings To Win The Stanley Cup

June 4, 2012 1 comment

[originally post for www.betonhockey.com on May 30/2012 ]

[click here for the 2014 LA/NYR SCF version of this post]

There’s a big fuss being made over the fact that, for only the second time ever, an American captain will be hoisting the Stanley Cup for his team first at the conclusion of this year’s playoffs. While it is an interesting statistic, it seems that the same people that are so concerned with captaincy nationality are uninterested in discussing the birthplaces of each of Dustin Brown and Zach Parise’s teammates that they are leading into battle; and less interested in talking about where the coaches that these captains are taking orders from, originate.

We should examine the origins of the remainder of each team’s roster to see exactly where our nationalistic allegiances should be strewn. Let’s do that now.

LOS ANGELES KINGS

The active roster of the Los Angeles Kings features 25 players – 15 of them are Canadian, 7 are American, 2 are Russian, and 1 is Slovenian. Add 1 Canadian if you count head coach Darryl Sutter. The Kings have more Canadians in their lineup than the Ottawa Senators, and as many as the Vancouver Canucks – the only two teams based in Canadian cities that made this year’s playoffs.

Representing Canada (60%): Jeff Carter, Kyle Clifford, Colin Fraser, Simon Gagne, Dwight King, Jordan Nolan, Dustin Penner, Mike Richards, Brad Richardson, Jarret Stoll, Kevin Westgarth, Justin Williams, Drew Doughty, Willie Mitchell, Jonathan Bernier (Darryl Sutter).

Representing the USA (28%): Dustin Brown, Trevor Lewis, Scott Parse, Matt Greene, Alec Martinez, Rob Scuderi, Jonathan Quick.

Representing Europe (12%): Slava Voynov, Andrei Loktionov, Anze Kopitar.

Assessment: Predominantly CANADIAN.

NEW JERSEY DEVILS

New_Jersey_Devils_BetOnHockey.gifThe active roster of the New Jersey Devils also includes 25 players – 7 of them are Canadian, 7 are American, 4 are Swedish, 3 are Czech, 2 are Russian, 1 is Ukranian, and 1 is Lithuanian. Add 1 Canadian if you count head coach Peter DeBoer.

Representing Canada (28%): Steve Bernier, Eric Boulton, David Clarkson, Adam Henrique, Travis Zajac, Bryce Salvador, Martin Brodeur (Peter DeBoer)

Representing the USA (28%): Ryan Carter, Stephen Gionta, Cam Janssen, Zach Parise, Mark Fayne, Andy Greene, Peter Harrold.

Representing Europe (44%): Patrick Elias, Jacob Josefson, Ilya Kovalchuk, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Petr Sykora, Dainius Zubrus, Adam Larsson, Henrik Tallinder, Anton Volchenkov, Marek Zidlicky, Johan Hedberg.

Assessment: Predominantly EUROPEAN.

CONCLUSION

If you’re basing your team allegiances upon the nationality content of each team, here’s how you should focus your cheering:

If you are Canadian, and want to cheer for Canadian players, you should be cheering for the LA Kings in the 2012 Stanley Cup Finals.

If you are American cheering for Americans, it’s your choice.

If you’re European cheering for Europeans, you should side with New Jersey.

[click here for the 2014 LA/NYR SCF version of this post]

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