The 2,000 point table – will Crosby pull up a chair?

While Alex Ovechkin’s approach of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record has captured the attention of the hockey world, Sidney Crosby is concurrently in pursuit of another historic milestone that seems to have garnered significantly less dissertation amongst puck pundits. To be fair, this chase is only for second place, which admittedly is never quite as alluring as one that has the potential to both declare an outright statistical superiority and usurp a legend of the game at the same time. Nonetheless, if accomplished it would be a distinguished silver medal that would earn Sidney Crosby a seat at a table that only The Great One has had his feet up at for over 30 years. Considering all the ways that Ovechkin and Crosby have been intrinsically linked over their careers, it is not surprising that they both would both be taking runs at Gretzky’s career totals from different angles in the twilight of their careers.

THE OBSERVATION

It appears to be mathematically feasible that Sidney Crosby could become only the second NHL player to ever reach 2,000 regular season points.

THE RESEARCH

The Stats

2023-2024 is Sidney Crosby’s 19^th NHL season. The most seasons anyone has ever played in the league is 26 (Gordie Howe, Chris Chelios).

No one has played more than 1,779 games – Patrick Marleau set the record after finishing up in 2020-2021 after his 23^rd season.

Crosby crossed the 1,500 point plateau earlier this year after playing his 1,193^rd regular season game. He now sits at 1,554 points in 1,240 games (as of Feb 14, 2024).  

The Math

No one has played more than 1,779 NHL games (yet) so let’s assume Crosby doesn’t surpass Marleau either. Sid’s current 1,554 points in 1,240 games lands him at a 1.25 points per game average (career). 2,000 points take away Crosby’s current tally leaves a gap of 446 to account for. Continuing to score at a 1.25 PPG pace (103 points a year) would allow Sid to reach the 2K milestone in 356.8 games / 4.4 seasons (all 82 games of 2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27, 2027-28 and 33 games of 2028-29).

If Sid can’t keep up a 1.25 PPG pace, he could afford to have his production rate slow to no lower than 1.2 PPG to reach point 2000 by game 1,779. That means 98-99 points a season for 5.4 seasons instead (all 82 games of 2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27, 2027-28, 2028-29, and 15 games of 2029-30). This trajectory would bunk a then 42-year-old Crosby with Howe and Chelios in the 26-season club and also draw him even with Marleau, exhausting both the theoretical max season and games played guardrails.

The Challenges

Besides needing to score at least 103 points each year for the next 4-5 seasons, Crosby will also have to stay healthy and sign a contract for (at least) 4 seasons beyond his current 12-year deal that expires at the end of 2024-25 if he is to achieve this landmark. If he slows to 1.2 PPG, he’ll need an even longer contract. He has only scored more than 100 or more points in six previous seasons (2005-06, 2006-07, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2013-14, 2018-19), meaning he didn’t do it 13 other times. Keeping this pace up into his 40’s will not be easy.

THE HYPOTHESIS

By the math, Crosby could theoretically reach 2,000 in game 1,597 while playing in his 24^th season. If he were to do it by then he would be close to Chelios and Howe’s career seasons total but still two seasons off either, and he would have needed 182 games less than Marleau played. If he can’t keep scoring at the ideal clip, there is still a path to success, albeit a more narrow one. Those numbers suggest that it’s plausible for Sid to accomplish this feat.

He could, of course, just set new seasons played and games played records and cross the finish line organically. The only holdup here may be contracts, but if not Pittsburgh, what team wouldn’t be interested in the services of the 3-time Stanley Cup champ and future first-ballot Hall of Famer even short-term?

THE TEST / DATA

Due by January 1, 2029 (no later than November 2029)

THE CONCLUSION

The fact that it could take arguably the greatest player of his generation 24 years to reach only next best in career point totals demonstrates how dominant Wayne Gretzky truly was on an all-time scale. Even if Crosby becomes only the second member of the exclusive / elusive 2,000 point club after playing into his forties, it is nothing short of awe inspiring that Gretzky was just 30 years old when he did it and only needed half the time (12 seasons – reached in 1990-91) to do the same. So is that he got 857 more after those.