The 2,000 point table – will Crosby pull up a chair?

While Alex Ovechkin’s approach of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal record has captured the attention of the hockey world, Sidney Crosby is concurrently in pursuit of another historic milestone that seems to have garnered significantly less dissertation amongst puck pundits. To be fair, this chase is only for second place, which admittedly is never quite as alluring as one that has the potential to both declare an outright statistical superiority and usurp a legend of the game at the same time. Nonetheless, if accomplished it would be a distinguished silver medal that would earn Sidney Crosby a seat at a table that only The Great One has had his feet up at for over 30 years. Considering all the ways that Ovechkin and Crosby have been intrinsically linked over their careers, it is not surprising that they both would both be taking runs at Gretzky’s career totals from different angles in the twilight of their careers.

THE OBSERVATION

It appears to be mathematically feasible that Sidney Crosby could become only the second NHL player to ever reach 2,000 regular season points.

THE RESEARCH

The Stats

2023-2024 is Sidney Crosby’s 19^th NHL season. The most seasons anyone has ever played in the league is 26 (Gordie Howe, Chris Chelios).

No one has played more than 1,779 games – Patrick Marleau set the record after finishing up in 2020-2021 after his 23^rd season.

Crosby crossed the 1,500 point plateau earlier this year after playing his 1,193^rd regular season game. He now sits at 1,554 points in 1,240 games (as of Feb 14, 2024).  

The Math

No one has played more than 1,779 NHL games (yet) so let’s assume Crosby doesn’t surpass Marleau either. Sid’s current 1,554 points in 1,240 games lands him at a 1.25 points per game average (career). 2,000 points take away Crosby’s current tally leaves a gap of 446 to account for. Continuing to score at a 1.25 PPG pace (103 points a year) would allow Sid to reach the 2K milestone in 356.8 games / 4.4 seasons (all 82 games of 2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27, 2027-28 and 33 games of 2028-29).

If Sid can’t keep up a 1.25 PPG pace, he could afford to have his production rate slow to no lower than 1.2 PPG to reach point 2000 by game 1,779. That means 98-99 points a season for 5.4 seasons instead (all 82 games of 2024-25, 2025-26, 2026-27, 2027-28, 2028-29, and 15 games of 2029-30). This trajectory would bunk a then 42-year-old Crosby with Howe and Chelios in the 26-season club and also draw him even with Marleau, exhausting both the theoretical max season and games played guardrails.

The Challenges

Besides needing to score at least 103 points each year for the next 4-5 seasons, Crosby will also have to stay healthy and sign a contract for (at least) 4 seasons beyond his current 12-year deal that expires at the end of 2024-25 if he is to achieve this landmark. If he slows to 1.2 PPG, he’ll need an even longer contract. He has only scored more than 100 or more points in six previous seasons (2005-06, 2006-07, 2008-09, 2009-10, 2013-14, 2018-19), meaning he didn’t do it 13 other times. Keeping this pace up into his 40’s will not be easy.

THE HYPOTHESIS

By the math, Crosby could theoretically reach 2,000 in game 1,597 while playing in his 24^th season. If he were to do it by then he would be close to Chelios and Howe’s career seasons total but still two seasons off either, and he would have needed 182 games less than Marleau played. If he can’t keep scoring at the ideal clip, there is still a path to success, albeit a more narrow one. Those numbers suggest that it’s plausible for Sid to accomplish this feat.

He could, of course, just set new seasons played and games played records and cross the finish line organically. The only holdup here may be contracts, but if not Pittsburgh, what team wouldn’t be interested in the services of the 3-time Stanley Cup champ and future first-ballot Hall of Famer even short-term?

THE TEST / DATA

Due by January 1, 2029 (no later than November 2029)

THE CONCLUSION

The fact that it could take arguably the greatest player of his generation 24 years to reach only next best in career point totals demonstrates how dominant Wayne Gretzky truly was on an all-time scale. Even if Crosby becomes only the second member of the exclusive / elusive 2,000 point club after playing into his forties, it is nothing short of awe inspiring that Gretzky was just 30 years old when he did it and only needed half the time (12 seasons – reached in 1990-91) to do the same. So is that he got 857 more after those.

Hockey Talkie: Gretzky Playoffs, Ovie Expendable, Worlds Woes

[originally post for www.betonhockey.com on May 2, 2012]

A puck bucket full of hockey thoughts to tee up….

Four of the eight teams remaining in the 2012 Stanley Cup playoffs have direct ties to Wayne Gretzky – The Great One played 18 games with the St. Louis Blues in 1996, 234 games with the New York Rangers from 1996 – 1999, coached 4 seasons for the Phoenix Coyotes from 2005 – 2009, and played 539 games with the LA Kings from 1988-1996, captaining them to their only Stanley Cup Finals appearance in franchise history. Had the Edmonton Oilers not been laughingly awful yet again this past season and lived up to hype and expectations, this could have been an all-Gretzky playoffs. Gretzky was known to have been vocal about wanting to win just one more Stanley Cup before he finished his career – is it that far-fetched to think that if one of those teams manages to win the Cup this year (there’s currently a 50% chance of that happening), Wayne might find a way to sneak on the ice and hoist the grail one last time?

••••••••••••••

Speaking of the Los Angeles Kings, they’re beginning to draw a lot of similarities to the underdog 2009-10 Montreal Canadiens – both entered the playoffs as the eighth seed of their conference, both eliminated the President’s Trophy winner of that season in the first round (Montreal beat Washington, Los Angeles ousted Vancouver), and both had/are having unexpected success in the second round (Montreal eliminating Pittsburgh, LA currently mauling St. Louis). The main difference though, is that it took Montreal 7 games to win both of those series – it only took the Kings 5 in the first round, and they are in the driver’s seat with a 2-0 series lead now. Of course, Montreal was beat in the third round, and LA’s playoff fate is not yet written. Los Angeles’ main criticism heading into this year’s playoffs was their inability to score – coming off a series sweep over St. Louis most recently, and with three players in the NHL’s top 25 playoff scorers (Brown, Kopitar, Richards), that ailment seems to be cured. Their goaltender remains a standout, and they’re shown their toughness is not an issue either, mixing it up frequently in both series. While both the Habs and Kings teams look similar, LA looks to be well on their way to faring far better.

••••••••••••••

A moment of discussion about a frame from game 2 of the Rangers/Capitals series…. The score was 3-1 Rangers with roughly 8 minutes to play in game 2, at which point Washington took a Too Many Men penalty. Caps’ coach Dale Hunter elected to have Alex Ovechkin serve that penalty. The announcer was quick to point out that Ovie’s serving of the penalty was a strategic move in hopes of springing him on a breakaway at the conclusion of the infraction, which is all well and good. My counterpoint to that is that on every team and every level I’ve played on, the player that generally went over to serve a bench minor penalty was an “expendable” player – maybe a fourth line or injured player, or just someone who wasn’t getting a lot of ice time for whatever reason that game, and it certainly wasn’t by any means because our coach had a strong confidence in their breakaway ability. So from that standpoint, it looks like Ovechkin may simply have been chosen for removal from participation in the game for 2 minutes when their team needed 2 goals really badly in a short amount of time if they hoped to win the game.

The chance of that breakaway opportunity actually occurring is relatively slim and more of a crapshoot; a hail mary play that is too low percentage to gamble on when the puck could just as likely be in a precarious scoring chance against Washington when the penalty expires. It seems like a positive spin a coach might pose to a psychologically fragile player that needs positive reinforcement to perform well so they don’t conclude that they are the team’s expendable player while sitting alone for two minutes or less. By the strategic logic, Hunter should have put Matt Hendricks, Washington’s shootout goal leader through the regular season, in the box for the opportunity at an uncontested run to the net.

It’s not like Hunter is afraid to clip Ovie’s wings if he’s not performing either— Ovechkin played 21 minutes in game 2 and was a -1 in the loss, while in game 3 he only saw 13 minutes of play (the least he’s ever played in a single playoff game), and scored the game winning goal. So the query point I want to raise is this: do you think Ovechkin serving that bench minor penalty was a strategic move for a chance at a scoring chance, or was it a knock towards his expendability and/or need to improve from coach Dale Hunter?

Further, the Caps should maybe consider making Ovechkin a dman if he’s only going to score from the point now.

••••••••••••••

The 2012 World Hockey Championships are nearly underway in Finland/Sweden, and the world’s “best” will be competing to improve their world rankings – Canada currently sits at fifth in the world, and will be looking to improve on that seeding with a decent roster, but one that does not include names like Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Toews, Roberto Luongo, Joe Thornton, and many other big name players that are available, but have elected not to compete for reasons of varying legitimacy. With many national rosters in the same boat, is it even fair to place as much value on this tournament as there is? Is there no way that this tournament can be played out at a different time of year where all of the world’s best hockey players can compete against each other to determine the world’s best? Or is it possible that the world’s best hockey players simply aren’t taking the tournament seriously enough when they should be jumping at the chance to wear their county’s colors on the international stage?

The Top 10 Internet-ually Influential NHL’ers

Hi folks! I had this list passed on to me from the fine folks at PeekYou.com. Interesting list! Scroll to the bottom for two of my own additions. 

-SDC

Follow @davecunning Follow @CunningAthletix

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It’s NHL playoff season – the race to partake of the questionable sounding act of drinking from Lord Stanley’s coveted cup is upon us in earnest.

With that, PeekYou, the leading people search engine presents the PeekScore line up of the NHL’s top 10 scorers as per their respective Web presence; just in time for playoffs.

PeekScore is a rank from 1 to 10, assigned to every person. The higher someone’s score, the “more important” they are on the web. In calculating your PeekScore and updating it often, PeekYou takes into account your known presence and activity on the Internet, including but not limited to; your blogging, participation in social networks, the number of your friends, followers, or readers, the amount of web content you create, and your prominence in the news.

Rank	Picture	Name	Team, Goals Scored	PeekScore
1		Evgeni Malkin	Pittsburgh Penguins, 50	8.19 / 10.00
2		Alex Ovechkin	Washington Capitals, 38	8.17 / 10.00
3		Steven Stamkos	Tampa Bay Lightning, 60	8.10 / 10.00
4		James Neal	Pittsburgh Penguins, 40	8.06 / 10.00
5		Phil Kessel	Toronto Maple Leafs, 37	8.05 / 10.00
6		Marian Gaborik	New York Rangers, 41	8.04 / 10.00
7		Ilya Kovalchuk	New Jersey Devils, 37	8.04 / 10.00
8		Scott Hartnell	Philadelphia Flyers, 37	8.03 / 10.00
9		Corey Perry	Anaheim Ducks, 37	8.02 / 10.00
10		Matt Moulson	New York Islanders, 36	7.81 / 10.00

[Dave’s note: I’d like to add two names to this list as interesting NHL player Twitter follows:

1) Dustin Penner @Dustinpenner25 for his immediate hilarity as a Twitter rookie, self-deprecating Pancake humor, and odd digs at LA sniper Anze Kopitar. 

2) The substantiated but heavily speculated Twitter account of Roberto Luongo @strombone1 which has speculatively been serving as a sounding board for the goaltender that asked for a trade from the Canucks recently. Luongo has never admitted to running the account, but bloggers and TV stations alike have been hot on the trail.  ]

About PeekYou

PeekYou is a search company that is re-indexing the public web around people’s identities, and redefining what it means to look someone up online. Rather than matching together mutually relevant URLs and keywords, as Google does, PeekYou matches any given URL to the identity of the person who created it, or whom it is about. To date, PeekYou has identified over 250 million people as the authors of over 3 billion public URLs. Over 7.5 million visitors use PeekYou’s people search engine every month. As of February 13, 2012, http://www.peekyou.com was ranked the 235th most popular website in the U.S., according to Quantcast. PeekYou’s analytics products deliver enterprise-class social audience measurement solutions. The Social Analytics API provides game-changing audience insights to better target content, engage relevant consumers, and create highly converting social initiatives for your brand. More info available at: http://analytics.peekyou.com/. The company was founded in 2006 by Michael Hussey, who created the globally recognized network of “RateMy” sites such as www.ratemyteachers.com, www.ratemyprofessors.com, and more.